Expectancy
The average amount you expect to win (or lose) per trade.
Formula
E = (Win% × Avg Win) - (Loss% × Avg Loss)
More Details
What is Expectancy?
Expectancy tells you how much money you can expect to make on average per trade. It's the ultimate measure of whether your system is profitable.
Formula
E = (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)
Where:
- P_w = Win rate (decimal)
- W_avg = Average win
- P_l = Loss rate (1 - win rate)
- L_avg = Average loss
Example
- Win Rate: 45%
- Average Win: $280
- Average Loss: $120
E = (0.45 × 280) - (0.55 × 120) = 126 - 66 = $60
You expect to make $60 per trade on average.
Why It's the Ultimate Metric
| Expectancy | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Negative | Losing money over time |
| Zero | Break-even (losing after fees) |
| Positive | Profitable edge |
Problems with Basic Expectancy
- Sample size: Need 100+ trades for significance
- Market regime: Bull vs bear expectancy differs
- Blended strategies: Hides what's working
TradesViz Expectancy Analysis
- Per-setup expectancy
- Per-instrument expectancy
- Statistical confidence intervals
- Rolling expectancy over time
Where to find it in TradesViz
Summary > Overall Statistics > Scores/Metrics displays total expectancy. For cumulative trends, go to Performance Metrics & Ratios > Reward/Risk & Expectancy tab. Use Pivot Grid to analyze expectancy by setup, symbol, or any custom grouping.
Example
With 45% win rate, 280 avg win, and 120 avg loss, expectancy is 60 per trade