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Historical simulationStocks1h barsLong onlyMixed holding periods

NVDA: MACD signal crossover, 60m (2026-04-04 to 2026-07-02)

TradesViz example study: MACD signal crossover on NVDA.US, 60-minute bars, 2026-04-04 through 2026-07-02. This is a historical simulation with preset rules, not a live account or an optimized strategy. Tests changes in momentum using the standard 12/26/9 MACD line and signal-line crossover. Entry: [CROSSED(input_col=MACD_LINE(close, 12, 26, 9), input_col2=MACD_SIGNAL(close, 12, 26, 9), direction=above)] Exit: [CROSSED(input_col=MACD_LINE(close, 12, 26, 9), input_col2=MACD_SIGNAL(close, 12, 26, 9), direction=below)] Settings: long only; next-bar-open fills; 25,000 starting equity in quote currency; 25% of current equity per position; 14-period ATR, 2 ATR initial stop, 3R target, 3 ATR trailing stop, and a 100-bar maximum holding period. Session 09:30 to 16:00 in exchange time (selected hours). Positions may remain open across sessions. Assumed costs: 0.01% of traded value commission per side and 0.01 points slippage per market fill. These are illustrative fixed assumptions, not broker quotes. Funding, financing, borrow fees, varying spreads, and market impact are not separately modeled. Limitations: MACD is derived from lagging averages and can repeatedly reverse during range-bound trading. The catalog includes preset markets and periods without selecting winners. This prior-hourly window is a separate study, not out-of-sample proof. Data availability, gaps and ambiguous intrabar fills must be checked in the completed report. Requested period: 2026-04-04 to 2026-07-02. Available test data: 2026-04-06 to 2026-07-02, 434 bars (America/New_York dates). Simulated historical strategy test for NVDA.US using 60-minute bars from 2026-04-04 to 2026-07-02. Asset class: stocks. Indicators and functions used: CROSSED, MACD_LINE, MACD_SIGNAL; Box 1 condition: [CROSSED(input_col=MACD_LINE(close, 12, 26, 9), input_col2=MACD_SIGNAL(close, 12, 26, 9), direction=above)]; Box 2 condition: [CROSSED(input_col=MACD_LINE(close, 12, 26, 9), input_col2=MACD_SIGNAL(close, 12, 26, 9), direction=below)]. Long only. Fills at the next bar's open. Opposite signal reverses the position. Starting equity: 25,000. Position size: 25 % of equity. Stop loss: 2 ATR. Take profit: 3 R. Trailing stop: 3 ATR. Commission per side: 0.01 %. Slippage per fill: 0.01 points. Maximum holding period: 100 bars. Risk-setting ATR period: 14. Session: 09:30 to 16:00 (exchange time). Saved results. Trades: 13; Net P&L: 270.617908; Return: 1.082472%; Win rate: 46.153846%.

Shared by pk78 · Published 2026-10-15 · Snapshot 2026-10-15 · Report revision 1

Test your versionLoads these rules and settings. Review them before starting a new test.

What was tested

Market
NVDA.US
Timeframe
60-minute bars
Test window
2026-04-04 – 2026-07-02
Engine
tv-engine-3

Simulated historical results, not live trading performance. Historical results do not predict future returns. Shared sections are selected by the author; hidden sections have not been independently verified. The author controls which sections are visible. This is a saved result; market data revisions or engine updates can change a later rerun.

Result and evidence

Too few trades

Only 13 trades, which is not enough to judge the strategy. Test a longer period.

Net P&L
270.62
Return
1.08%
Trades
13
Win rate
46.2%
Profit factor
1.34
Maximum drawdown
-3.12%
Average trade
20.82
Average R
0.19R
Sharpe ratio
0.75
Commission paid
16.30
Chance a no-edge strategy does this well
34.1%
P&L without the 2 best trades
-412.09

Read before trusting the numbers

  • Only 13 trades. That is too few to tell skill from luck; test a longer period or a faster timeframe.
  • 2 stop exits filled at the open because price gapped past the stop, so they closed beyond the stop price (worst -1.11R).

The luck check is a statistical estimate for this sample, not the probability of future success. Costs, sample size and testing many variants affect how much confidence a result deserves.

Full performance statistics

Compare the full run with its long and short trades.

Statistics from the saved run, for All, Long and Short trades. N/A means unavailable or not applicable.
MetricAllLongShort
Performance
Net P&L270.62270.62N/A
Return on starting equity1.08%N/AN/A
Profit factor1.341.34N/A
Average trade (expectancy)20.8220.82N/A
Average R per trade0.19R0.19RN/A
Total R2.46R2.46RN/A
Buy & hold return (same period)9.82%N/AN/A
Trades
Trades13130
Win rate46.15%46.15%N/A
Average win176.90176.90N/A
Average loss-112.97-112.97N/A
Average win / average loss1.571.57N/A
Largest win432.11432.11N/A
Largest loss-168.01-168.01N/A
Most wins in a row55N/A
Most losses in a row55N/A
Average bars in trade11.0811.08N/A
Average time in trade2d 11h2d 11hN/A
Average adverse excursion (MAE)84.2184.21N/A
Average favorable excursion (MFE)183.01183.01N/A
Risk
Max drawdown-811.44N/AN/A
Max drawdown %-3.12%N/AN/A
Longest drawdown49dN/AN/A
Sharpe ratio (daily, annualized)0.75N/AN/A
Sortino ratio (daily, annualized)1.12N/AN/A
Time in the market31.34%N/AN/A
Costs
Commission paid16.3016.30N/A
Same-bar exits assumed stop-first0N/AN/A
Luck check
Chance a no-edge strategy does this well34%N/AN/A
Net P&L without the 2 best trades-412.09N/AN/A

N/A means the metric is unavailable or does not apply to that side. Colors describe individual metrics, not the reliability of the strategy.

Strategy rules

Entry / long entry

[CROSSED(input_col=MACD_LINE(close, 12, 26, 9), input_col2=MACD_SIGNAL(close, 12, 26, 9), direction=above)]

Exit / short entry

[CROSSED(input_col=MACD_LINE(close, 12, 26, 9), input_col2=MACD_SIGNAL(close, 12, 26, 9), direction=below)]

Execution and risk settings

Direction
Long only
Signal mode
Entry and exit
Order fills
Next bar's open
Opposite signal
Reverse position
Starting equity
25,000.00
Position size
25.00 % of equity
Stop loss
2.00 ATR
Take profit
3.00 R
Trailing stop
3.00 ATR
Move stop to breakeven at R
Not set
Maximum bars in trade
100.00
Flat at session end
No
Commission per side
0.01 %
Slippage per fill
0.01 points
Session
09:30 – 16:00 (exchange time)

Equity and drawdown

Saved simulated equity across this test window. Drag the range control to inspect a period.

Simulated trades

13 trades in this snapshot. All times are UTC.

#SideEntryExitSizeEntry priceExit priceNet P&LExit reason
1.0Long2026-04-08 14:30:002026-04-13 16:30:0034.00181.8051188.4300223.99exit_signal
2.0Long2026-04-14 15:30:002026-04-15 18:00:0032.00193.4550196.010080.51trailing_stop
3.0Long2026-04-24 15:30:002026-04-28 13:30:0030.00208.9297209.480015.25trailing_stop
4.0Long2026-05-04 19:30:002026-05-07 14:10:0031.00198.6400212.6200432.11take_profit
5.0Long2026-05-13 15:30:002026-05-15 13:30:0028.00226.2100228.360058.93trailing_stop
6.0Long2026-05-20 14:30:002026-05-21 14:30:0028.00224.3600218.9200-153.56exit_signal
7.0Long2026-05-27 19:30:002026-05-29 19:55:0030.00212.4600211.3600-34.27trailing_stop
8.0Long2026-06-04 19:30:002026-06-05 13:30:0029.00220.2400214.4900-168.01stop_loss
9.0Long2026-06-08 19:30:002026-06-09 15:25:0030.00207.8450203.3600-135.78trailing_stop
10.0Long2026-06-09 19:30:002026-06-10 18:30:0030.00205.9300202.2500-111.62exit_signal
11.0Long2026-06-11 16:30:002026-06-16 18:30:0031.00201.3250209.4500250.60exit_signal
12.0Long2026-06-18 16:30:002026-06-22 18:30:0030.00209.9950208.7500-38.61exit_signal
13.0Long2026-06-26 17:30:002026-06-29 14:15:0032.00195.0450190.4300-148.91stop_loss