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Historical simulation15m barsLong onlyIntraday

BTC-USD: EMA crossover, 15m (2026-07-03 to 2026-09-30)

TradesViz example study: EMA crossover on BTC-USD.CC, 15-minute bars, 2026-07-03 through 2026-09-30. This is a historical simulation with preset rules, not a live account or an optimized strategy. Tests whether a fast exponential moving average crossing a slower one captures persistent trends. Entry: [CROSSED(input_col=EMA(10), input_col2=EMA(25), direction=above)] Exit: [CROSSED(input_col=EMA(10), input_col2=EMA(25), direction=below)] Settings: long only; next-bar-open fills; 25,000 starting equity in quote currency; 25% of current equity per position; 14-period ATR, 2 ATR initial stop, 3R target, 3 ATR trailing stop, and a 100-bar maximum holding period. Session 00:00 to 00:00 in exchange time (all day). Positions close at the end of each session. Assumed costs: 0.1% of traded value commission per side and 5 points slippage per market fill. These are illustrative fixed assumptions, not broker quotes. Funding, financing, borrow fees, varying spreads, and market impact are not separately modeled. Limitations: Moving averages lag price and repeated crosses can produce losses in sideways markets. The catalog includes preset markets and periods without selecting winners. This recent-intraday window is a separate study, not out-of-sample proof. Data availability, gaps and ambiguous intrabar fills must be checked in the completed report. Requested period: 2026-07-03 to 2026-09-30. Available test data: 2026-07-03 to 2026-09-30, 8,639 bars (UTC dates). Simulated historical strategy test for BTC-USD.CC using 15-minute bars from 2026-07-03 to 2026-09-30. Indicators and functions used: CROSSED, EMA; Box 1 condition: [CROSSED(input_col=EMA(10), input_col2=EMA(25), direction=above)]; Box 2 condition: [CROSSED(input_col=EMA(10), input_col2=EMA(25), direction=below)]. Long only. Fills at the next bar's open. Opposite signal reverses the position. Starting equity: 25,000. Position size: 25 % of equity. Stop loss: 2 ATR. Take profit: 3 R. Trailing stop: 3 ATR. Commission per side: 0.1 %. Slippage per fill: 5 points. Maximum holding period: 100 bars. Close positions at session end. Risk-setting ATR period: 14. Session: 00:00 to 00:00 (exchange time). Saved results. Trades: 184; Net P&L: -2,541.91623; Return: -10.167665%; Win rate: 19.021739%.

Shared by pk78 · Published 2026-10-15 · Snapshot 2026-10-15 · Report revision 1

Test your versionLoads these rules and settings. Review them before starting a new test.

What was tested

Market
BTC-USD.CC
Timeframe
15-minute bars
Test window
2026-07-03 – 2026-09-30
Engine
tv-engine-3

Simulated historical results, not live trading performance. Historical results do not predict future returns. Shared sections are selected by the author; hidden sections have not been independently verified. The author controls which sections are visible. This is a saved result; market data revisions or engine updates can change a later rerun.

Result and evidence

Unprofitable

The strategy lost money over this test window.

Net P&L
-2,541.92
Return
-10.17%
Trades
184
Win rate
19.0%
Profit factor
0.32
Maximum drawdown
-10.50%
Average trade
-13.81
Average R
-0.67R
Sharpe ratio
-11.07
Commission paid
2,182.03
Chance a no-edge strategy does this well
100.0%
P&L without the 2 best trades
-2,741.53

Read before trusting the numbers

  • 1 stop exit filled at the open because price gapped past the stop, so it closed beyond the stop price (worst -1.97R).

The luck check is a statistical estimate for this sample, not the probability of future success. Costs, sample size and testing many variants affect how much confidence a result deserves.

Full performance statistics

Compare the full run with its long and short trades.

Statistics from the saved run, for All, Long and Short trades. N/A means unavailable or not applicable.
MetricAllLongShort
Performance
Net P&L-2,541.92-2,541.92N/A
Return on starting equity-10.17%N/AN/A
Profit factor0.320.32N/A
Average trade (expectancy)-13.81-13.81N/A
Average R per trade-0.67R-0.67RN/A
Total R-123.29R-123.29RN/A
Buy & hold return (same period)35.90%N/AN/A
Trades
Trades1841840
Win rate19.02%19.02%N/A
Average win34.7334.73N/A
Average loss-25.22-25.22N/A
Average win / average loss1.381.38N/A
Largest win105.67105.67N/A
Largest loss-61.91-61.91N/A
Most wins in a row33N/A
Most losses in a row2121N/A
Average bars in trade11.2711.27N/A
Average time in trade2h 42m2h 42mN/A
Average adverse excursion (MAE)15.2615.26N/A
Average favorable excursion (MFE)22.7622.76N/A
Risk
Max drawdown-2,628.18N/AN/A
Max drawdown %-10.50%N/AN/A
Longest drawdown89d 10hN/AN/A
Sharpe ratio (daily, annualized)-11.07N/AN/A
Sortino ratio (daily, annualized)-15.99N/AN/A
Time in the market22.33%N/AN/A
Costs
Commission paid2,182.032,182.03N/A
Same-bar exits assumed stop-first0N/AN/A
Luck check
Chance a no-edge strategy does this well100%N/AN/A
Net P&L without the 2 best trades-2,741.53N/AN/A

N/A means the metric is unavailable or does not apply to that side. Colors describe individual metrics, not the reliability of the strategy.

Strategy rules

Entry / long entry

[CROSSED(input_col=EMA(10), input_col2=EMA(25), direction=above)]

Exit / short entry

[CROSSED(input_col=EMA(10), input_col2=EMA(25), direction=below)]

Execution and risk settings

Direction
Long only
Signal mode
Entry and exit
Order fills
Next bar's open
Opposite signal
Reverse position
Starting equity
25,000.00
Position size
25.00 % of equity
Stop loss
2.00 ATR
Take profit
3.00 R
Trailing stop
3.00 ATR
Move stop to breakeven at R
Not set
Maximum bars in trade
100.00
Flat at session end
Yes
Commission per side
0.10 %
Slippage per fill
5.00 points
Session
00:00 – 00:00 (exchange time)

Equity and drawdown

Saved simulated equity across this test window. Drag the range control to inspect a period.

Simulated trades

184 trades in this snapshot. All times are UTC.

#SideEntryExitSizeEntry priceExit priceNet P&LExit reason
1.0Long2026-07-03 02:00:002026-07-03 02:30:000.1061518.011761309.0000-33.71exit_signal
2.0Long2026-07-03 05:30:002026-07-03 14:10:000.1061547.101661708.43783.86trailing_stop
3.0Long2026-07-04 08:45:002026-07-04 09:15:000.1062541.308662442.9805-22.29exit_signal
4.0Long2026-07-04 12:30:002026-07-04 17:30:000.1062544.378963016.404434.54take_profit
5.0Long2026-07-05 08:15:002026-07-05 09:20:000.1062966.351662739.2715-35.00stop_loss
6.0Long2026-07-05 15:00:002026-07-05 16:00:000.1062756.929762681.1719-19.98exit_signal
7.0Long2026-07-05 19:15:002026-07-05 21:05:000.1062807.000062607.5847-32.22stop_loss
8.0Long2026-07-06 16:00:002026-07-07 00:00:000.1063519.378963996.839834.29session_end
9.0Long2026-07-07 12:15:002026-07-07 12:45:000.1063756.750063416.1127-45.71stop_loss
10.0Long2026-07-07 15:30:002026-07-07 19:15:000.1063693.441463471.9093-34.03trailing_stop
11.0Long2026-07-08 17:45:002026-07-09 00:00:000.1062213.000062232.6992-10.45session_end
12.0Long2026-07-09 05:00:002026-07-09 12:40:000.1062401.800862514.6013-1.21trailing_stop
13.0Long2026-07-09 13:15:002026-07-09 17:00:000.1062818.929762639.6211-30.11exit_signal
14.0Long2026-07-09 17:45:002026-07-10 00:00:000.1062963.019563170.25007.98session_end
15.0Long2026-07-10 01:30:002026-07-10 08:15:000.1063349.988364310.570081.54take_profit
16.0Long2026-07-10 22:30:002026-07-11 00:00:000.1064093.851664123.4883-9.57session_end
17.0Long2026-07-11 12:00:002026-07-11 12:45:000.1064150.269564085.0508-18.75exit_signal
18.0Long2026-07-11 13:45:002026-07-11 15:35:000.1064202.089864246.2190-8.16trailing_stop
19.0Long2026-07-11 17:45:002026-07-11 22:20:000.1064312.878964172.0569-26.02trailing_stop
20.0Long2026-07-12 04:00:002026-07-12 04:30:000.1064184.359463975.8862-32.55stop_loss
21.0Long2026-07-12 12:15:002026-07-12 21:40:000.1064061.710963984.0394-19.91trailing_stop
22.0Long2026-07-14 00:30:002026-07-14 12:30:000.1062323.238363316.644886.26take_profit
23.0Long2026-07-15 04:15:002026-07-15 05:30:000.1064777.000064590.0508-30.33exit_signal
24.0Long2026-07-15 05:45:002026-07-15 07:00:000.1064654.761764751.3187-3.15trailing_stop
25.0Long2026-07-15 09:30:002026-07-15 10:00:000.1064787.019564590.8516-31.19exit_signal

The equity chart displays 2000 sampled points from 8639 saved points. The performance summary uses the full run.