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Historical simulation15m barsLong onlyIntraday

BTC-USD: Bollinger band re-entry, 15m (2026-07-03 to 2026-09-30)

TradesViz example study: Bollinger band re-entry on BTC-USD.CC, 15-minute bars, 2026-07-03 through 2026-09-30. This is a historical simulation with preset rules, not a live account or an optimized strategy. Tests whether a close back inside the lower Bollinger band is followed by a return toward its middle band. Entry: [CROSSED(input_col=close, input_col2=BOLLBANDS_LOWER(period=20, sd_levels=2), direction=above)] Exit: [close > BOLLBANDS_MIDDLE(period=20, sd_levels=2)] Settings: long only; next-bar-open fills; 25,000 starting equity in quote currency; 25% of current equity per position; 14-period ATR, 2 ATR initial stop, 3R target, 3 ATR trailing stop, and a 100-bar maximum holding period. Session 00:00 to 00:00 in exchange time (all day). Positions close at the end of each session. Assumed costs: 0.1% of traded value commission per side and 5 points slippage per market fill. These are illustrative fixed assumptions, not broker quotes. Funding, financing, borrow fees, varying spreads, and market impact are not separately modeled. Limitations: Volatility bands do not bound losses; a strong downtrend can continue after a re-entry signal. The catalog includes preset markets and periods without selecting winners. This recent-intraday window is a separate study, not out-of-sample proof. Data availability, gaps and ambiguous intrabar fills must be checked in the completed report. Requested period: 2026-07-03 to 2026-09-30. Available test data: 2026-07-03 to 2026-09-30, 8,639 bars (UTC dates). Simulated historical strategy test for BTC-USD.CC using 15-minute bars from 2026-07-03 to 2026-09-30. Indicators and functions used: BOLLBANDS_LOWER, BOLLBANDS_MIDDLE, CROSSED; Box 1 condition: [CROSSED(input_col=close, input_col2=BOLLBANDS_LOWER(period=20, sd_levels=2), direction=above)]; Box 2 condition: [close > BOLLBANDS_MIDDLE(period=20, sd_levels=2)]. Long only. Fills at the next bar's open. Opposite signal reverses the position. Starting equity: 25,000. Position size: 25 % of equity. Stop loss: 2 ATR. Take profit: 3 R. Trailing stop: 3 ATR. Commission per side: 0.1 %. Slippage per fill: 5 points. Maximum holding period: 100 bars. Close positions at session end. Risk-setting ATR period: 14. Session: 00:00 to 00:00 (exchange time). Saved results. Trades: 204; Net P&L: -2,089.52139; Return: -8.358086%; Win rate: 36.27451%.

Shared by pk78 · Published 2026-10-15 · Snapshot 2026-10-15 · Report revision 1

Test your versionLoads these rules and settings. Review them before starting a new test.

What was tested

Market
BTC-USD.CC
Timeframe
15-minute bars
Test window
2026-07-03 – 2026-09-30
Engine
tv-engine-3

Simulated historical results, not live trading performance. Historical results do not predict future returns. Shared sections are selected by the author; hidden sections have not been independently verified. The author controls which sections are visible. This is a saved result; market data revisions or engine updates can change a later rerun.

Result and evidence

Unprofitable

The strategy lost money over this test window.

Net P&L
-2,089.52
Return
-8.36%
Trades
204
Win rate
36.3%
Profit factor
0.34
Maximum drawdown
-8.63%
Average trade
-10.24
Average R
-0.47R
Sharpe ratio
-10.72
Commission paid
2,447.21
Chance a no-edge strategy does this well
100.0%
P&L without the 2 best trades
-2,214.61

The luck check is a statistical estimate for this sample, not the probability of future success. Costs, sample size and testing many variants affect how much confidence a result deserves.

Full performance statistics

Compare the full run with its long and short trades.

Statistics from the saved run, for All, Long and Short trades. N/A means unavailable or not applicable.
MetricAllLongShort
Performance
Net P&L-2,089.52-2,089.52N/A
Return on starting equity-8.36%N/AN/A
Profit factor0.340.34N/A
Average trade (expectancy)-10.24-10.24N/A
Average R per trade-0.47R-0.47RN/A
Total R-95.73R-95.73RN/A
Buy & hold return (same period)35.90%N/AN/A
Trades
Trades2042040
Win rate36.27%36.27%N/A
Average win14.5914.59N/A
Average loss-24.38-24.38N/A
Average win / average loss0.600.60N/A
Largest win71.9571.95N/A
Largest loss-63.60-63.60N/A
Most wins in a row88N/A
Most losses in a row1818N/A
Average bars in trade6.816.81N/A
Average time in trade1h 38m1h 38mN/A
Average adverse excursion (MAE)15.5815.58N/A
Average favorable excursion (MFE)17.0317.03N/A
Risk
Max drawdown-2,162.59N/AN/A
Max drawdown %-8.63%N/AN/A
Longest drawdown86d 8hN/AN/A
Sharpe ratio (daily, annualized)-10.72N/AN/A
Sortino ratio (daily, annualized)-11.86N/AN/A
Time in the market15.13%N/AN/A
Costs
Commission paid2,447.212,447.21N/A
Same-bar exits assumed stop-first0N/AN/A
Luck check
Chance a no-edge strategy does this well100%N/AN/A
Net P&L without the 2 best trades-2,214.61N/AN/A

N/A means the metric is unavailable or does not apply to that side. Colors describe individual metrics, not the reliability of the strategy.

Strategy rules

Entry / long entry

[CROSSED(input_col=close, input_col2=BOLLBANDS_LOWER(period=20, sd_levels=2), direction=above)]

Exit / short entry

[close > BOLLBANDS_MIDDLE(period=20, sd_levels=2)]

Execution and risk settings

Direction
Long only
Signal mode
Entry and exit
Order fills
Next bar's open
Opposite signal
Reverse position
Starting equity
25,000.00
Position size
25.00 % of equity
Stop loss
2.00 ATR
Take profit
3.00 R
Trailing stop
3.00 ATR
Move stop to breakeven at R
Not set
Maximum bars in trade
100.00
Flat at session end
Yes
Commission per side
0.10 %
Slippage per fill
5.00 points
Session
00:00 – 00:00 (exchange time)

Equity and drawdown

Saved simulated equity across this test window. Drag the range control to inspect a period.

Simulated trades

204 trades in this snapshot. All times are UTC.

#SideEntryExitSizeEntry priceExit priceNet P&LExit reason
1.0Long2026-07-03 00:45:002026-07-03 01:15:000.1061262.070361542.300816.06exit_signal
2.0Long2026-07-04 23:30:002026-07-05 00:00:000.1063050.210963078.8984-9.66session_end
3.0Long2026-07-05 02:30:002026-07-05 04:45:000.1062689.160262874.98836.01exit_signal
4.0Long2026-07-05 10:00:002026-07-05 13:00:000.1062562.878962682.7188-0.54exit_signal
5.0Long2026-07-06 03:45:002026-07-06 08:35:000.1063141.031362775.7558-48.63trailing_stop
6.0Long2026-07-06 10:15:002026-07-06 11:45:000.1062784.960962891.2617-1.93exit_signal
7.0Long2026-07-06 13:45:002026-07-06 15:15:000.1061597.339862431.601671.95exit_signal
8.0Long2026-07-07 02:15:002026-07-07 02:50:000.1063776.351663379.5822-51.40stop_loss
9.0Long2026-07-07 03:30:002026-07-07 05:10:000.1063247.769562844.9879-52.20stop_loss
10.0Long2026-07-08 02:45:002026-07-08 06:20:000.1062937.308662481.1028-57.58stop_loss
11.0Long2026-07-08 09:30:002026-07-08 11:45:000.1061892.199262247.500023.21exit_signal
12.0Long2026-07-08 15:30:002026-07-08 16:45:000.1061576.589861987.429729.01exit_signal
13.0Long2026-07-09 02:15:002026-07-09 02:50:000.1062037.871161640.9245-52.27stop_loss
14.0Long2026-07-09 03:15:002026-07-09 04:30:000.1061801.339862034.761711.02exit_signal
15.0Long2026-07-09 12:00:002026-07-09 13:15:000.1062721.851662808.9297-3.81exit_signal
16.0Long2026-07-10 01:00:002026-07-10 01:30:000.1063063.121163339.988314.84exit_signal
17.0Long2026-07-10 15:15:002026-07-10 19:45:000.1063957.019563931.9219-14.89exit_signal
18.0Long2026-07-10 20:45:002026-07-10 21:15:000.1063833.878963894.1406-6.57exit_signal
19.0Long2026-07-12 00:30:002026-07-12 01:45:000.1063789.179764116.878919.46exit_signal
20.0Long2026-07-12 06:45:002026-07-12 08:15:000.1063735.808664000.949213.41exit_signal
21.0Long2026-07-12 23:00:002026-07-13 00:00:000.1063847.410263735.3203-23.37session_end
22.0Long2026-07-13 02:30:002026-07-13 03:05:000.1063421.089862967.6478-56.82stop_loss
23.0Long2026-07-13 03:30:002026-07-13 05:00:000.1063024.328162552.4028-58.79stop_loss
24.0Long2026-07-13 13:30:002026-07-13 13:40:000.1062492.851662206.2465-40.76stop_loss
25.0Long2026-07-13 14:15:002026-07-13 15:00:000.1062351.929762715.578123.64exit_signal

The equity chart displays 2000 sampled points from 8639 saved points. The performance summary uses the full run.